Cannot afford to lose in the toughest group on return to Champions' League

Manchester United finished 3rd surprising everyone to qualify for Champions' League only to be drawn against last years finalist's Paris St Germain and semi-finalist's Red Bull Leipzig in the toughest draw of the group stages. They start their campaign against PSG in Paris where they memorably came back from first leg loss of 0-2 to win 3-1 and progress on away goals rule after Marcus Rashford converted the penalty which could have been Romelu Lukaku's hat-trick. 18 months later both teams have changed a lot and its the group stage not the knock-out yet due to involvement of three top teams in the group every point counts.

Rom steps up picks up the ball and hands it to me.

He knew this was my moment.

He knew it would be me that got all news coverage for scoring that penalty and he was ok with that, ignoring the fact that he was the most instrumental part of that win.

— Marcus Rashford MBE (@MarcusRashford) October 1, 2020

PSG will certainly want to erase that memory with a solid display befitting the second best team in Europe. They will be without a few players like Icardi, Verratti, Paredes, Kehrer and Bernat yet the threat of Kylian Mbappe heir to Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar will be enough to beat the best of teams. PSG after a shaky start to the season have won five on the trot scoring 16 goals. United could face two of their ex-players in Angel di Maria and favourite Ander Herrera. New signings Rafinha Alcantara from Barcelona and Danilo from Porto are available as are Gueye, Draxler and captain Marquinhos.

United will be without captain Harry Maguire who hasn't travelled just like Mason Greenwood, Eric Bailly and Edinson Cavani. Victor Lindelof might have Axel Tuanzebe and Luke Shaw partnering him in what looks like a 5 man defense, meaning new signing left back Alex Telles might make his debut and Wan-Bissaka in the right back role. Nemanja Matic playing alongside Scott McTominay in midfield and behind Bruno Fernandes. Martial up top with Rashford on the left cutting in. Much improved David de Gea might continue in goal ahead of Dean Henderson. Last time in Paris Pogba spoke of his wish to play for Real Madrid after he contributed to two goals for the opposition in the 1-6 loss to Spurs that no longer makes him an automatic starter tonight, while Parisian Ander Herrera still speaks eloquently of his love for Manchester United wanting to say goodbye to fans, contrast is stark and real.

Interestingly the announcement of Bruno Fernandes to lead the side took place during the press conference when Solskjaer said "The captain sits next to me. Bruno will captain the team tomorrow." to which Fernandes responded "I was not expecting this. I know the same time as you." Why? Did Solskjaer needed to show his faith in Fernandes after supposed reaction to being thrashed by Tottenham? Having captained Sporting this role comes naturally to Fernandes, but hopefully Rashford was taken in confidence beforehand who speaks first to fans after every bad display including the loss to Spurs, had led United against City in the league cup semi-final loss, and was spoken as future leader by everyone for his drive to help disadvantaged children.

First match of the group stages should be viewed by most teams in the Champions' League as an opportunity to get the maximum points as the favourite teams might not be ready yet. PSG usually run riot in the French Ligue 1 winning the title in 7 of last 8 seasons and aiming to win the Champions' League under Qatar Sports Investment headed by ruler of the state. Of United Thomas Tuchel rightly said "They are one of the best teams in transition. We need to keep the ball and impose our own game on them and prevent the counter-attack." Having averted a crisis by winning at Newcastle would ease the pressure significantly on United players who can express themselves more tonight. Starting cautiously and shifting to counter attacking style suits United to nick the points away in Paris, its the home match next in the Premier League the worry.

My favourite memory from that night in Paris was the shot of Marcus Rashford much like Mr. Manchester United Sir Bobby Charlton in his heyday, struck the ball with full power only to fall just ahead of the keeper who now has to adjust to the bounce that increases the chances of ball spilling over, and Lukaku slotted home his second goal.

United need a convincing performance to avert a crisis

Speculation will always be rife about the future of their manager and of their main players if United lose two of their three games let alone get thrashed like they did against Spurs and at home in Old Trafford without fans. It gets another dimension when the very player who was inspirational for turning around the fortunes of the club since his arrival in late January, Bruno Fernandes is substituted at half time when the team is down 1-4. Team failed to buckle up in the second half and conceded two more goals. As the players return to Manchester from their international duty, Fernandes responded to the rumours "What was said is in no way true. I was replaced at half-time, it is true, by technical option. The coach told me that game was almost over and that we would a have lot of games ahead of us. I was not satisfied but said nothing that could harm the group."

Paul Pogba played for United in the first match against Palace despite having just recovered from coronavirus and recently while representing France once again spoke of his desire to play for Real Madrid one day. It seems MUFC had exercised the option to extend Pogba's contract by one further year till June, 2022 which made Solskjaer to say "Paul’s our player and he's going to be here for another two years." Both Fernandes and Pogba are crucial for United to get out of this slump in form. Will Pogba pay the price for his comments and Solskjaer choose Donny van de Beek instead who scored his first international goal for Netherlands against Italy? United were outplayed in the midfield where McTominay and Pogba played in the first match, and Matic and Pogba the next two. Pogba will relish the opportunity to shine against PSG in his native France.

United let in 11 goals in just 3 games that highlights disjointed display through out the squad. It started before the season even began when skipper Harry Maguire was involved in an serious incident in Greece courting arrest. Solskjaer obviously having spoken with his captain decided to start him from the word go. To continue the misery he got sent off in a 0-1 loss to Denmark at Wembley this Thursday. Maguire served United well last season playing in all 38 league matches with David de Gea to concede just 36 goals. Eric Bailly was brought into the starting XI to partner Maguire against Spurs on back of his two games in the league cup instead of Victor Lindelof, while Juan Mata was continued to be ignored as an attacker despite two man of the match awards. If Harry Maguire is fit and has not been sent on vacation other than to Greece to take a break and recharge, he is likely to start. Lindelof looks unconventional while tracking back but was effective last season that might get him the nod ahead of Bailly who is quick but not sure about his positional sense.

Anthony Martial is serving his three match suspension and Edinson Cavani is under quarantine which might mean a rare start for Odion Ighalo in the league. Solskjaer is most likely to start Marcus Rashford honored with an MBE or Mason Greenwood in the 20-man short list for Golden Boy award. Solskjaer usually does not drop his main players unless they are injured while at the same time resource management will take centre stage as Champions' League starts next week with an away match to Paris St Germain. Ferguson made five changes to his side after they lost 1-6 to City in Oct, 2011 for the next league match away at Everton including a recall for Phil Jones! The claim to name Fernandes or Rashford as captain instead of Maguire will not be considered. Dean Henderson will not be content in playing just the League Cup and FA Cup, and will want to play more games coupled with the fact that Champions' League might be more demanding, can replace David de Gea this weekend in goal in the Premier League. Alex Telles might be on the bench.

Probable starting XI against Newcastle United might be:
Henderson (GK), Wan-Bissaka, Shaw, Lindelof, Maguire(C), Fred, van de Beek, Fernandes, Mata, Greenwood, Rashford

Board not getting the players that Solskjaer had asked for isn't a surprise nor the excuse for bad performance. United and their local rivals City were the only teams still playing till middle of August in Europe unlike the rest of the league that has had a direct effect on both their standings being 16th and 14th respectively. It calls into question the strategy they employed to counter the lack of recuperation between two seasons and without pre-season to get into optimal physical conditioning. City have had a tougher set of fixtures than United having to face Wolves(A), Leicester(H) and Leeds(A) while United faced Palace(H), Brighton(A) and Tottenham(H). Both clubs could have asked their players to continue with pre-season instead of vacations, not easy but necessary due to the pandemic, and should have completed their transfer activities early. Both clubs might have erred in their strategy.

An unpleasant news regarding my club from my country in the tweet below: Cannot expect logic to dictate sports as human elements are involved at all levels in playing, administration, officiating and governance. Key is to find the pockets of positivity like policy to hire about 15 of the best youth players from across the continent to strengthen the youth setup, inspired actions of Marcus Rashford and the club during the pandemic, Bruno Fernandes proving to be as inspirational as Cantona and emergence of Mason Greenwood. United finished 3rd reaching three semi-finals in the first full year in charge of Solskjaer and as expected second season will be a lot tougher.

The president of India’s first official Manchester United Supporters Club (MUSC), Sunil Thakur, has quit. Thakur said @ManUtd forced him to take down a tweet critical of its performance.https://t.co/OyhV6xGhyu

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) October 15, 2020

MUFC Board were certainly busy preparing the project 'Big Picture' which was rightly vetoed at the Premier League meeting this week. Meanwhile Gary Neville has backed the alternate proposal by ex-FA chairman David Bernstein for an independent regulator. The unfinished FA Youth Cup of 2019-20 that was halted at semi-final stage will re-start on 30-Oct with all games being played at National Football Centre in St George's Park and finals on 02-Nov. United play Chelsea while Blackburn play City in the two semi-finals. Good luck lads.

Clubs Q1 and full year results of 2019-20  will be delayed from 12-Oct to 21-Oct (United play PSG) when the true extend of loss in revenue due to COVID-19 will be known. Here's hoping Solskjaer turns things around by then to avert a certain crisis. If United lose that will be the worst start to a league campaign since 1986 when Ron Atkinson eventually lost his job to Sir Alex Ferguson who had defied the old firm dominance in Scotland. Will bank on the good away form and are unbeaten since the unexpected loss to Burnley in January before Fernandes joined the club. Solskjaer has big calls to make to set the right tone ahead of very difficult set of matches after today's visit to St James' Park in Paris St Germain, Chelsea, RB Leipzig and Arsenal. Playing Newcastle instead of Chelsea or Arsenal is a blessing to regroup right after international break, for that same reason pressure will also increase exponentially if the result this weekend isn't right. Former United captain Steve Bruce at his boyhood club got his first managerial win last season with a dream debut for Longstaff brothers a sublime moment in sport. Another inspired display from the Gerodie's can wreck havoc in Manucian sails that Solskjaer will be wary about hoping 'Lightning never strikes the same place twice'!

Thrashed 1-6 by Spurs at Old Trafford and let down by the board in transfers

United capitulated to let six goals on account of individual errors from Maguire, Bailly, Shaw, De Gea, Pogba let to collectively implode as a team on the pitch while off it ineptness of the board led to not get their top target in Jadon Sancho. Two home games and United have conceded nine goals and overall 11 in three games of the new season. Its a horror show from a team that only let in miserly 36 goals last season. Team was perhaps a reflection of Solskjaer, totally distracted as it let Luke Shaw speak twice about lack of incoming players that's out of his remit. As highlighted before the game Spurs were rejuvenated due to transfers and were clearly on a roll compared to utter chaos in United's last two performances. 

Perhaps in Feb 1955 going down 0-5 to Don Revie inspired City and 2-4 to Wolves that saw the lowest attendance of the season at Old Trafford.
BTW #MUFC had a proud unbeaten record of not losing their opening home fixture for 4 decades b/w 1973-2013! https://t.co/MGWXkyEETf

— Srinivas Rao (@srinivasjrao) October 4, 2020

Bit more on the above answer. Longest serving City coach Les McDowall inspired by the display of Hungarian Nandor Hidegkuti against England dubbed as 'match of the century' used his number 9 Don Revie in the same manner as a deep lying centre-forward to a devastating effect that led to beating United three times in a season. Last of which came in February 1955 when United without their talisman Tommy Taylor and a young side were thrashed 0-5 at Old Trafford that led to the lowest attendance of the season in their next match when Taylor was brought back ahead of time to fare slightly better but still lose 2-4 to eventual runners-up Wolves. United finished 5th in that 1954-55 season due to slow start while Duncan Edwards made his England debut as the youngest ever. Revie won the Footballer of the Year award.

Solskjaer picked Fosu-Mensah, McTominay and James in the opening match against Crystal Palace at home and upon getting out-thought by veteran Roy Hodgson reverted to his trusted XI against Brighton away only to win at the death after having being let off by the seagulls hitting the woodwork five times! Brought in Bailly on back of his two improved performances in the League Cup instead of Lindelof but did nothing to stop the opposing teams bossing the midfield in either of the three games. That was the root cause of the debacle which has clearly not been addressed. During the first half of last season United struggled with Fred and McTominay both playing to win just 4 of 14 matches and a repeat would make the learnings useless. Aging Matic needs an understudy like Declan Rice as both Fred and McTominay can't read the game.

Too early but signings that have made big difference at top of the table so far:
Allan #Everton
Hojbjerg #Spurs
Hendrick #NCU
Barkley #Villa
Did #MUFC miss a trick by not going for #DeclanRice?
McTominay vs CP
Matic vs BHA
Matic(1h)+Fred/McTominay(2h) vs THFC
If no #Sancho then

— Srinivas Rao (@srinivasjrao) October 5, 2020

Season after the interruption due to pandemic like the big freeze of 1962 can be more disruptive. Chief reason is the lack of recovery from a grueling season, impeding growth of body and no assimilation of lessons learned due to lack of time afforded for reflection. Inevitably performances suffer impacting responses to even actions that are mundane. United already 16th in the table. Initially the slide starts with poor results backed with rearguard defiance and then that fight caves in due to a hammering like the 1-6 result which can suck all energy. Then chaos rules especially if there isn't a natural number #9 striker of Denis Law's caliber to hold things up. Perhaps United did well to sign Edinson Cavani if he remains injury free.

#EPL 2020 like 1963 will be #DISRUPTIVE.#LFC in their 2nd season won;
Champion's 2years back #ITFC relegated; so did #BWFC #WWFC #BFC #BRFC later,#LUFC won promotion,#MUFC became consistent.
Avg goals/game spiked then steadily declined.
Tread carefully. VAR+HbR😨@premierleague

— Srinivas Rao (@srinivasjrao) October 5, 2020

To challenge for the top two United had to get the following positions filled with 1st team starter: centre-half, left-back, central defensive midfield, right wing, centre-forward i.e., FIVE positions. They got one in Alex Telles for left-back which is not a spine like the centre-half, CDM or forward to have an immediate impact. All depends on the fitness of Edinson Cavani to adapt to fast and physical demands of the Premier League, so need to consider him as a backup unlike Thomas Muller or Jamie Vardy. Facundo Pellistri can be fast tracked to first team after 3 months of adaptation. Donny van de Beek offers Solskjaer to change formations in midfield. At best can rate the transfer window 4 of 10. No points for being prudent to avoid the purchase of injury prone Ousmane Dembele and keeping the option open for Jadon Sancho in next transfer window. No disrespect to Pellistri and Amad they are great prospects but club could have signed Declan Rice or Dayot Upamecano before he renewed his deal with RB Leipzig, instead! Last time club took a bet on 18 year old, he won the Ballon d'Or! #CR7 

This will peg back the prediction for this season from 3rd initially to now 6th position which will increase the pressure on Solskjaer as top four will not be attainable. MUFC board have not had any manager post Sir Alex Ferguson stay for more than 2 years 7 months set by Jose Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer reaches that limit in June, 2021. Ferguson used to say it takes four years for a manager to have his players in most positions to be able to make them play in his vision. Solskjaer has done tremendous job of using all four windows at his disposal to remove the deadwood and trim the squad yet he is still left with Jones and Rojo. Ferguson like Mourinho also finished 2nd in their 2nd season followed by very tough struggle to make the changes count but Ferguson was backed by the board while Mourinho was not in his tiff with Paul Pogba. Board must stick with Solskjaer until his 4th season to make a call not May, 2021 else they will not be able to reap the benefits.

Bruno Fernandes was brought from next season's kitty and initial transfer fee is considered not agents fee or add-on's or salary except for Alexis Sanchez in above calculations. United should have agreed to release ever reliable Sergio Romero to Everton like Ferguson had done in the past with many players. Domestic transfer window closes on 16th October. Some of the names that have been linked with United in the past are centre-half Joe Rodon of Swansea whom Ryan Giggs referred, right winger Ismaila Sarr of Watford and David Brooks of Bournemouth. Loan move for Sarr was rejected by Watford already who wanted guaranteed 25 million if the player was not bought at the end of loan period. Polish International defensive midfielder Krystian Bielik of Derby County can be the outside bet despite returning from ACL injury. Rodon, Sarr or Bielik can marginally improve United not significantly, as most of them are backup but given constant mid-week matches till Christmas might be worth it.

Solskjaer lifted the club from 14th to 3rd but given the spend by other major clubs being higher than United the odds are stacked against him. The positivity of finishing 3rd and all the good community work done since the start of the pandemic has evaporated due to mishandling of the transfers. If club had done these exact transfers by 1st week of September citing the economic challenges due to the pandemic fans would have embraced it, especially when it meant funding to the youth team has continued to rise under 'cultural reboot', most recently Willy Kambwala. Solskjaer meanwhile embarks on his toughest season of his three year contract since signing on Mar, 2019 and genuine long time fans acknowledge to back him ever more.

Amid last minute deals United face rejuvenated Spurs

Tough negotiator Daniel Levy had convinced Jose Mourinho to agree deals for Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Matt Doherty and Joe Hart only under the economic circumstances, but later moved to sign duo from Real Madrid in ex-favourite Gareth Bale and left back Sergio Reguilon followed by a loan move for forward Carlos Vinicius while still being in the hunt for a centre-back like Milan Skriniar. This flurry of activities has been done as English Premier League rivals indulged in a spending spree. That rivals does not include Manchester United! Spurs will play their 4th match inside 10 days when they meet United at Old Trafford having cleared the 3rd round and qualified for Europa League, unlucky to not win against Newcastle due to handball rule and beat Chelsea on penalties in League Cup. Form and momentum is with the lilywhites from North London managed by ex-United manager seeking his first win at Old Trafford as Tottenham coach having won the home game last year but lost the away match due to two inspired Marcus Rashford goals.

In contrast United lost their opening home game to Crystal Palace and in the next match away at Brighton, to borrow Don Davies' words, 'were suffering the fortunes of a chicken having its neck wrung by someone with a mighty strong grasp, but who couldn't quite finish the job'. To be fair without pre-season United players performance has gradually increased. Will Solskjaer change the formation by starting with two CDM's or a diamond against master tactician Mourinho? Still without a natural right winger but now has this luxury of adapting formations thanks to the shrewd purchase of Donny van de Beek. Conceded 5 goals in two games and being hit 5 times on their woodwork reveals a porous shield in midfield that is making defense to leak goals needing urgent attention. Anthony Martial will be repeatedly watching the Harry Kane masterclass of holding up the ball, creating and scoring against Southampton. Son is doubtful and Bale is not yet match fit.

Don Juan doing his best to rally everyone at #MUFC as they face a team & ex-Mgr Mourinho rejuvenated by transfers. #MUNTOT Lack of fans at Old Trafford must be like a blessing to Woodward & Glazers!
If no #Sancho by weekend then #Dembele & later his motivation will go for a toss

— Srinivas Rao (@srinivasjrao) October 3, 2020

Solskjaer did a stellar job of defending the clubs transfer activity by stating he needs to get more out of the squad by giving chance to greater number of players in the first team. Did not confront the owners like Louis van Gaal or Jose Mourinho. Pressure of playing in the Champions' League will be far greater than far flung exploits to lesser known clubs in Europa League hence the need to add quality depth to the squad. Final weekend before the extended summer transfer window closes has seen United do a panic buy for Edinson Cavani on a free transfer since leaving Paris St Germain in July where he was their all time leading goal scorer. Deal supposedly includes just less than 10 million in agents fee and 10 million annual salary. Fans would think the club could have used this to complete the deals for their primary targets in Jadon Sancho and Alex Telles which they are haggling to come to terms for a long time! 

United bet their entire transfer window success on Jadon Sancho and let it be known to everyone by agreeing personal terms with the player and his agents, and for most part had no alternatives. Selling club set a price that United haven't matched due to the economic implications of the pandemic decreasing the likelihood of reaching the deal unless of course they budge on their stance and pay up. This makes mockery of United. In the last month they have spoken to Ousmane Dembele of Barcelona but pause a while to what the Frenchman might be thinking if he is signed - that he was second choice all along. To complicate matters United seem to have agreed to buy Uruguay's 18 year old winger from Penerol in Facundo Pellistri an exciting and inspired choice, coached by former striker Diego Forlan. In couple of years time he has the chance of becoming the next Ryan Giggs although he reminds more of Michael Platini. This also raises questions of Daniel James' future.

Daniel Levy for years having run the club on tightest of budgets, changed the recruitment structure after selling Dimitar Berbatov to United, converting Tottenham into a top four contenders from mid table club and building a new stadium the envy of everyone in Europe, can do a better job than Ed Woodward who can just concentrate on his specialty of doing commercial deals. Glazers have the right to make every penny count. This change will demonstrate their long term interest in the club and seek an definite upgrade on their current chief executive. Or Ed Woodward hires a competent Director of Football finally. If United fail to get either Sancho or Dembele will they sign Declan Rice or Dayot Upamecano or Harry Kane for Solskjaer finishing 3rd and not just in top four to show the largesse that Joe Lewis and Daniel Levy have at Tottenham? Probably not cause the clubs will not have time to bring in an alternative to fill the gap and that's the major downside of doing deals late, in United case not just one but majority of their deals are pending for final days of this window. Doing transfers in Q2 and not Q1 seem less consequential than last year vs this year for accounting principles. 

Matches between #MUNTOT have been thrilling down the years with United scoring more points against them than any other team in Premier League. Players regaining match fitness and a point to prove especially Anthony Martial will make it another one to remember for sure before the break for International matches. 5th October will be a frenzied day in Manchester as deals get sorted, will they satisfy Solskjaer is not certain. The famous #7 jersey meanwhile remains vacant...