Showing posts with label Alexis Sanchez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alexis Sanchez. Show all posts

Ten crucial days off and on the pitch

Manchester United have the biggest stadium in the English Premier League 76,000 seater Old Trafford and with matches since restart for last quarter of the season being played without fans they lost 5.5 million pounds per home game. Over the course of the season that's 111 million pounds and 18% of clubs overall income. Broadcasting revenues constitutes 38% as per 2019-20 figures and the rest 44% comes from commercial deals wherein the Champions' League qualification has meant United do not lose out on adidas clause and retain 20 million pounds instead. Worst case loss of revenue this fiscal year July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021 could be 111 million of match day receipts plus loss of broadcast revenue of 80 million plus loss of revenue from commercial that includes cancellation of lucrative pre-season tour, suspension of tour of Old Trafford and Museum, and loss in shirt sales, all in all its a massive loss of over 200 million i.e., a third of total revenue (627 million in 2019) wiped out!

Loss in last two quarters Q3, Q4 of 2019-20 season might be the sum of 60.5 million from 9 matches in EPL and 2 in Europa League plus 20 million returned to broadcasters already plus about 9 million to nullify Alexis Sanchez's contract i.e., 89.5 million minimum. For Q3 of 2019-20 (01Jan to 31Mar) club had already announced a loss of 28.5 million with net debt increasing to 429 million which was 127 million more compared to previous year affected by pandemic and USD-GBP exchange rate. In the end of May club secured 140 million in revolving credit facility for reasons stated as player transfers and other expenditures but as it turned out they paid 9 cents a share dividend on 3rd of June! If fans are not allowed till March a year from the start of pandemic, player salaries might be impacted as player wages account for about 50% of revenue discounting 3% minimum of Sanchez's astronomical wage bill. United had shown 307 million in cash though as of June, 2019 which can cushion the blow. Q4 and 2019-20 full year results and earnings report conference call has been postponed to October from last week of September.

By the end of the year net debt might reach levels of 660 million which was the case when the Glazers did the leveraged buy out of the club in 2005 and might put MUFC back in the market for Saudi's to try takeover again. Manchester United was mostly debt free from 1931 when James W Gibson stepped in to help the club and remained so till 2005, consequently eyed by every businessman during that time from Louis Edwards to Michael Knighton and Rupert Murdoch via BskyB. David Conn in the Guardian published in 4th October, 2018 said that Glazers via dividends, executive pay to directors, share sale have taken more than 1 Billion out of the club while Man City's owners have put more than 1 Billion into theirs, gulf between two local Manchester rivals is greater than 2 Billion. Pandemic has put the redevelopment of Old Trafford on hold which was long overdue. At a valuation of over 4 Billion there are indeed very few takers. The $559m shirt deal with Chevrolet and training kit deal with Aon expire at the end of this year and a new deal with new sponsors needs to be struck.

With an uncertain and unpredictable future this season it will not be easy to spend 108 million pounds on a single player. United had two scenario's: Jadon Sancho will only be signed in the last week of transfer window to save paying his huge wages till the last minute if Dortmund agree to slightly reduced fee with installments spread over few years OR pursuing cheaper alternatives early in window. They chose the former but fans are getting nervy if Dortmund decline and United do not sign any alternatives like the chase for Raphael Varane under Jose Mourinho. Faith in clubs transfer process has deteriorated steadily since the last years of Ferguson when very few deals were done due to 'lack of value' and later club pursued the strategy of doing transfers with big agents post Ferguson that resulted in most of the talks being in the public domain via leaks to pent up the price. The change in recruitment under Solskjaer is noticeable but much still needs to be done in scouting. When was the last time they signed a player who was tracked for a good number of years and signed without paying a hefty fee without any delay?

They hired Neil Ashton for PR last January and who till the end of last season had done a good job especially while the club was supporting local communities affected due to the pandemic. It isn't as though the club are complaining about the negative sentiments from most of its 1.1 billion fans on lack of transfer activity. Instead this #MUFC hashtag remains relevant throughout the transfer window and reaches a crescendo when the player is actually signed up. This sounds deliberate of how business imperative forces a footballing decision to be delayed in order to maximize social media and online traffic. Both Solskjaer and Ashton haven't been able to change this yet!

Manchester Evening News rightly points out that United deal for Sancho was always planned in the last week of transfer window i.e., the first week of October in order for it to be impacting the financial reporting of Q2(01Oct to 31Dec). Unless player's and agent's terms are agreed in advance its not possible for deal of this size to be concluded within four days. Does that hold good for Alex Telles or Dayot Upamecano? No and Yes due to the size of the transfer fee. Club are in talks to sell Chris Smalling for 18 million while Sergio Romero has not yet returned who is unlikely to play for Solskjaer again after being dropped for the Europa League Cup semifinal against Sevilla. Rojo, Jones, Lingard and Pereira have no concrete offers yet. Two more promising players have gone out on loan - Dylan Levitt to Charlton Athletic and James Garner to Watford who join three other players - Tahith Chong at Werder Bremen, Matej Kovar at Swindon Town and Joel Pereira at Huddersfield Town.

United won 3-0 away at Kenilworth Road against Luton Town with a Mata converted penalty won by industrious Brandon Williams, Greenwood assist for Rashford to get back in form and finally Rashford assist for Greenwood. Matic and Fred both started to provide cover for battered defense to not lose confidence while giving a platform for new signing Donny van de Beek to make his first full competitive start. That protection in front enabled Eric Bailly to provide a sound display alongside Harry Maguire including a goal line clearance and Solskjaer might retain the duo against Brighton and Hove Albion on Saturday. Jesse Lingard played full 90 minutes with good link play only final shot was missing. Dean Henderson made his senior United debut with a stunning save to deny Hatters an equalizer and this made David de Gea to say "I feel the best I've felt in my career" before the match on Saturday. Solskjaer with that win has taken his tally to 50 wins in 92 games as United manager just behind Ernest Mangnall and Jose Mourinho!

After the restart last season United played a weakened BHAFC team that were aiming for survival which will not be the case on Saturday especially after they beat NUFC 3-0 away a fantastic result. Last time United lost their opening two games in English Premier League was in 1992-93 when they went on to win their first league title in 26 years! Solskjaer has his priority set right after an abysmal defeat on the opening game of this season against Crystal Palace "My focus is solely on the game and I can’t be thinking any other way. We need three points in this game.” Probable XI: De Gea, Wan Bissaka, Shaw, Maguire, Bailly, Fred, van de Beek, Fernandes, Greenwood, Martial, Rashford.

United will play the Seagulls again in the League Cup round of 16 on 30-Sep. 04th October they welcome back Jose Mourinho's Tottenham to Old Trafford before the International break with Newcastle, Chelsea and Arsenal to follow next. Tough fixtures in October also adds to the pressure on getting the away win at Brighton today.

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Right players key to sustain top four and avoid bad start to new season

Biggest challenge for Manchester United will be to sustain top four finish that has NOT been achieved since the last season of Sir Alex Ferguson in 2012-13, final league position since then offers pessimistic outlook for upcoming season. Coupled with relative inexperience of United first team against traditional top six rivals especially in a crammed fixtures next season pose additional challenges. FA have removed the replays in FA Cup and second-leg of League Cup semi-final to meet these demands. With such less recovery time between two seasons it becomes even harder for a young side to develop. United were without Martial, Pogba, Rashford, Shaw for long spells last season that saw them make their worst start to English League campaign in 33 years. Simple lesson will be to get the signings done before the pre-season starts to enable the squad integration disregarding the transfer window that stays open beyond 12th September. After the loss to Sevilla, Solskjaer had this to say: "We need to strengthen the squad depth because it's going to be a long season. We're going to keep pushing and keep demanding more of the players that we have, but still, we're looking to improve and it's a strange one. The league starts very quickly, but then the market is open for so long. So we've got to be both good, smart and clever."

2011-12: 2nd
2012-13: 1st
2013-14: 7th
2014-15: 4th
2015-16: 5th
2016-17: 6th
2017-18: 2nd
2018-19: 6th
2019-20: 3rd
2020-21: ?

Tifo football who are one of the earliest proponents of using data science in football came out with their suggestions: Jadon Sancho at ring wing, Ibrahim Sangare at defensive midfield, Moussa Niakhate at left centre-back.


Statman Dave who was previewed by United's twitter account for their game against Copenhagen has suggested five players: Jadon Sancho at right wing, Alex Telles as left back, Dwight McNeil as inverted winger, Gabriel Magalheas as left centre-back, Declan Rice as defensive midfield

One player who might already be challenging David de Gea for number 1 jersey will be Dean Henderson and is due to sign a new long term deal. He might play in the Cup competitions and few pre-season games to enable him to settle down quickly at Old Trafford. Solskjaer had already hinted he can't keep three top keepers happy at the same time! Sergio Romero enters the final year of his contract and might be surplus to requirements.
Will Jadon Sancho be Manchester United's first 100 million pound signing? This summer represents their best chance at landing the Englishman due to the travails of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus, Man City leaving United in sole charge to home-in on the brightest winger in the world with 15 assists and 15 goals already that is only matched by Lionel Messi across the top 5 European leagues! Transfer of this magnitude does have its own complications like the image rights, agents fee, intermediaries, sponsorship, medicals. United look to finally break the hoodoo over their iconic number 7 jersey that's maligned ever since a Liverpudlian Owen wore it. Its four years since United broke their transfer record to sign Paul Pogba for 89 million pounds. Sancho is key to reducing the 33 point gap with champions of last season. United must not let Kai Havertz deal have any influence on deal with Sancho, it might be a smokescreen to push the prices up. With the world economy in recession due to the pandemic and United committed to serve its community, club may deem it extravagant to spend 100 million on a single player and pull out of this transfer. Genuine fans will back the club. If Pogba can be a success on return to United so can Memphis Depay who has excelled consistently in a foreign league and acknowledged the past mistakes.

To fund the other targets to add squad depth United need to sell few of their players Lingard, Smalling, Pereira, Rojo, Jones, Dalot etc. Though Solskjaer remains a huge fan of Jack Grealish it seems impossible to have another massive outlay of 70 million factored in for this transfer window itself. Ironically that's the price West Ham have put on Declan Rice. Donny van de Beek continues to be linked from the famed Ajax academy at much cheaper valuation that might materialize only if the Spanish giants don't proceed with their established interest in the player. Alexis Sanchez is out that frees up the wage bill substantially. This is huge because that transfer screwed United's pay structure and created squad unrest... in short went against everything that 'team sport' is supposed to mean.


To balance these astronomical signings Solskjaer has already inducted academy graduates in pacey 18 year old centre-back Teden Mengi and 19 year old right-back Ethan Laird into the first team as part of Europa League campaign. If James Garner and Dylan Levitt go out on loan like Tahith Chong then United would need to sign at least one back-up midfielder.

Will Maguire have another injury free campaign? United have mostly tended to pursue targets who are least risk option like Maguire or Wan-Bissaka and pay huge transfer fee. Can #MUFC enlist a marquee player entering later years of their contracts from top clubs across Europe like Alessio Romagnoli from AC Milan or David Alaba of Bayern Munich. Romagnoli has already captained Milan and is represented by Mino Raiola as his agent who is due to discuss Paul Pogba's new deal shortly. Another option is Dayot Upamecano who had a consistent season with RB Leipzig including a stellar performance against Atletico Madrid but has just signed a new three year contract diminishing the chances of a transfer this season.
United should continue acquiring best young players like Daniel James from the Championship after his successful first season, initially as a backup. Centre-back Joe Rodon from Swansea or Joe Worrall from Nottingham Forest or Benoît Badiashile from Monaco, left-back Fode Ballo-Toure from Monaco or Rico Henry from Brentford, defensive midfielder Kalvin Phillips from Leeds United or Boubakary Soumaré from Lille or Sandro Tonali from Brescia or Florentino Luis from Benfica or Michał Karbownik from Legia Warsaw, to name a few.

The notion if #SackWoodward is set trending by end of this week transfers will happen next week is wrong. Next week players return for pre-season training after just two weeks rest and that is when evidently deals mostly conclude at United. Sounds absurd but it's unfortunately true. All transfer actions starts from the first week of September giving Solskjaer and coaching staff very less time to prepare for new season. There was no expectation that United would now go on to make smart signings by not paying huge transfer fees as the director of football with considerably reduced role and data analysts have not yet been hired. To establish United again as a top four team and avoid the horrible start to a new season does require the club to get the right players identified by Solskjaer. Last season's signings have proved the doubters wrong and Solskjaer has brought optimism, belief back to Old Trafford.
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Famous number 7 jersey that has become a conundrum in the last decade

Ever since an Liverpool legend graced the famous number 7 jersey of Manchester United its become a poisoned chalice. Micheal Owen did score that famous derby goal from a Ryan Giggs pass to win a decisive game in the sixth minute of stoppage time and in the following season managed to win his only league winners medal. He had replaced Cristiano Ronaldo who after winning the Champions' League and Ballon D'Or left for Real Madrid as did David Beckham in 2003 his predecessor.

Antonio Valencia provider of pin-point crosses and passes to Wayne Rooney wore the jersey succeeding Owen but within a year the weight of expectations took its toll and he reverted back to No 25.

Angel Di Maria signed for record transfer fee by Louis van Gaal was bestowed the jersey and started off by winning the Player of the Month and Goal of the Month awards with 2 goals and 2 assists in his first four matches, but his performances with the rest of the team dropped off sharply amid difference of opinion with the manager that he failed to board the plane for preseason tour of the US and was subsequently sold to PSG recouping three-fourths of the transfer fee.
Memphis Depay eagerly wanted that famous jersey from di Maria and started equally well. Louis van Gaal and Ryan Giggs cognizant of this fact, urged him to change his lifestyle after Depay admitted he found it difficult to cope with heavy schedule of games and was dropped from the squad midway through the season. Depay was the Man of the Match against FC Midtjylland in a 5-1 win where Marcus Rashford made his dream debut scoring two goals after Anthony Martial got an injury during the warm up. Depay did not even make the FA Cup final squad either. Jose Mourinho in his first season had even less patience and allowed the Dutchman to leave in January to Lyon becoming the first failed import from PSV after the success of Jaap Stam, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Park Ji-Sung.

A year after Depay left United signed Alexis Sanchez playing a piano in a sensational ad aimed for the social media. He unfortunately achieved only that and not much on the field. Fans were upset that he kept in-form Anthony Martial out of the squad and in return offered nothing. His most important contribution was to score the winner against Newcastle in a game that was rumoured to be Mourinho's last but the Chilean helped keep the Special One a while longer at Old Trafford.

Keeping with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's push for academy players and raising concerns about the attitude of players purchased previously it makes sense to hand the number 7 jersey to Marcus Rashford. He has played on despite team's struggles, many times with injury and even faced the media bravely after a heavy defeat. He shown remarkable maturity as seen in his interview with Gary Linekar earlier this season and took up many causes that shows his deep commitment to social issues impacting his locality, Wythenshawe a suburb of Manchester. A leader to compliment Maguire.
Rashford has had his best season for United with 14 league goals and 4 assists curtailed with a double stress fracture after putting in positive performances to dispel doubts over his ability to lead the line and learning along the way the nuances of striker's runs, touches, positional play to lift United. He became the fourth youngest player to play 200 times for Manchester United behind Norman Whiteside, George Best and Ryan Giggs. He is happy with the number 10 jersey and not hinted any desire for a change. Jack Grealish, Jadon Sancho and James Maddison are being eyed by the club for the summer with an irresistible temptation of the number 7 jersey however given the failure in the last decade it might be worthwhile to reconsider the approach. Champions' League qualification might be a decisive factor to determine who eventually comes to Old Trafford. Antonio Valencia a full back and to be given the number 7 jersey was always going to be a long shot, not so in the case of Marcus Rashford adept at playing at the apex or left of the attacking triad. The contrarian view would be to not load the 23 year old Mancunian who has just made his best contribution to his boyhood club. What do you think?

Famous players to don No 7 shirt: Johnny Berry, George Best, Steve Coppell, Bryan Robson, Eric Cantona, David Beckham, Cristiano Ronaldo. Robson and Cantona weren't wingers and succeeded. Johnny Giles wore it in the 1963 FA Cup final before being released to join rivals Leeds United, a decision regretted later by Sir Matt Busby. Solskjaer having steadied the club with sound recruitment and setup the number 7 might not face the unpredictable line-up or tactics under previous managers coming to grips with the huge task to follow unprecedented success of Sir Alex Ferguson era thus increasing the chances of getting it right in the new decade.
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Year when Woodward finally turned the corner

At the end of 2012-13 Premiership winning campaign Manchester United were dealt a double blow firstly the decade long successful chief executive David Gill announced that he would step down in February and in May Sir Alex Ferguson retired finally on his second attempt. On his first attempt Peter Kenyon had lined up Sven-Goran Eriksson as the successor in 2002 but thankfully Sir Alex stayed on to overhaul LFC's 18 league titles and win another Champions' League in 2008. Promises were made to fans by the board that the succession was properly taken care of and a repeat of a disaster that ensued Sir Matt Busby's departure would not happen again.

All of Ferguson's successors would have been ideally suited to helm different roles that he single- handedly played. David Moyes as head of the academy, Louis van Gaal as technical director, Jose Mourinho as manager and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as an assistant with media duties. Instead David Moyes walked in with his own staff from modest Everton and quickly banished the entire Ferguson back room team of Mike Phelan, Rene Muelensteen and Eric Steele. Departure of Paul Scholes while Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Giggs were in their final year and Darren Fletcher struck down by ulcerative colitis meant MUFC needed an big squad overhaul. It is widely believed that MUFC won their 20th league title largely due to Sir Alex Ferguson's brilliance in getting the maximum of a thread bare ageing squad and goals from Robin van Persie an inspired signing.With new chief executive Ed Woodward who had played a key part in the Glazer take-over in 2005 MUFC struggled to sign players despite being linked to Toni Kroos, Gareth Bale, Cesc Fabregas and managed to sign only one new player for the new season in Marouane Fellaini from Everton and later Juan Mata was signed in January for a hefty #37 million from Chelsea.

MUFC finished in 7th their lowest position in 23 years suffering double loss to LFC, Everton, Man City, bowed out in 3rd round of FA Cup and David Moyes was sacked in April for failing to deliver European football for next season. Under Louis van Gaal and Jose Mourinho MUFC saw a flurry of transfers largely done through three super agents Jorge Mendes for Radamel Falcao, Angel di Maria and Mino Raiola for Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Paul Pogba, Romelu Lukaku and Fernando Felicevich for Alexis Sanchez. Overall spending on player acquisition post Ferguson retirement is a staggering 1,053.55 million euros. Under LVG and Mourinho MUFC won the FA Cup, League Cup, UEFA Europa League, finished 2nd in the league within 4 years of Ferguson's exit while it took 8 years for the 1st trophy after Busby had left in form of FA Cup in '77 after suffering relegation in 73-74 and brief comeback by Busby for 2nd half of 70-71 season. The catastrophic failure of Alexis Sanchez deal was a wake-up call for Woodward who was thus far not intervening on decisions if the player will be a good fit as per the MUFC traditions or not. He only allowed the signing of Lee Grant, Fred, Diogo Dalot and blocked the deal for Jerome Boateng while Raphael Varane could not be persuaded to leave Real Madrid despite willing to spend #100million in the summer of 2018.

This season Woodward came out in defense of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer ahead of the pivotal game against Liverpool, led the tributes to Munich victims at Belgrade and agreed to an open interview with 'United We Stand' fanzine celebrating their 30th year. Got all the three summer transfers right and importantly all of whom have integrated well with the first team playing regularly: Daniel James, Aaron Wan-Bissaka & Harry Maguire. Rightfully pulled out on agreeing a deal to bring Erling Haaland another of Mino Raiola's client due to excessive demands on his future transfer including a buyout clause. Talent wise this is a loss for MUFC given that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer had personally flown to meet with Haaland's representatives and having managed him at Molde. Questions still persist over perhaps the biggest scouting team employed in football worldwide that consistently fails to spot the next exciting prospect whom the club can entice at valuations that save considerable money and the negotiations team that takes for ever to conclude a deal severely impacting the number of players that club can sign in a transfer window.

Solskjaer has set a trend of former players returning to manage the clubs they played for and that in turn has increased the percentage of British managers in the Premier League. MUFC end the year in 5th position within 4 points off 4th place: crucial to secure Champions' League football else the club will receive reduced fees from sponsors next season. Based on the progress thus far this season fans feel encouraged that club will not have to wait another 26 years (i.e., 2038) before winning the league again. 
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Painful transition from 14 losses, 6 draws last season to more draws and less defeats

Manchester United were not expected to start winning games consistently in English Premier League after that emphatic triumph in the FA Cup ...

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